Cognitive History (sage ability)

Cognitive History is an expert-status sage ability in the study of History, allowing characters to anticipate and react to large-scale historical and sociopolitical shifts before they happen, through comprehending the behaviour of large numbers of intelligent persons. The skill's strength lies in its focus on observable patterns, making it a form of educated foresight rather than supernatural divination.

This is particularly useful in political or intrigue-heavy campaigns, where long-term planning and strategic insight matter. However, even in more combat-oriented settings, forewarning of military actions or resource shortages could provide a distinct advantage. The limitation that players may not be able to prevent certain events, only respond to them, ensures the skill remains fair and engaging rather than an easy way to control the game's narrative.

The time frame for the foresight varies depending on the event in question. Some events may be foreseen within days or weeks, while others, such as wars or rebellions, may be predicted years in advance. The DM ultimately determines the specifics of each predicted event. The inclusion of an event in the campaign gives the players a distinct advantage, as they are not caught by surprise but have forewarning of the situation. However, knowing about an event does not always guarantee the players can prevent it, though they can use their knowledge to their advantage in numerous ways.

Prediction Table

Event	Frame of Warning	Event Nearing	Event Imminent
Rebellion	3-12 months	4-6 weeks	3-6 days
Declaration of War	7-12 months	2-3 weeks	1-3 days
Appearance of Invading Army	3-5 days	1 day	2-5 hours
Outcome of a Battle	6-24 hours	2-8 hours	1 hour
Sociological Disaster	5-30 months	1-4 months	2 days

Predictions

Frame of Warning indicates the approximate frame of time in which a great event is going to take place within a hundred miles of the character's location. For example, the DM would literally tell the character that, "Within the next three to twelve months, there's going to be a rebellion." This is all the character knows, for now.

Event Nearing updates both the amount of warning and where the event will occur. I fill in more pertinent details relating to the size and danger presented.

For example, while the character formerly knew an invading army would appear in 3-5, NOW the character knows it will be here tomorrow. The character also learns where the invading army is coming from and how large it is.

Event Imminent updates the character again; the character also learns more details, such as the leader, what specific entities are involved and the scale of what's about to happen.

When to Give the Knowledge

In each case, the DM rolls the exact time before which an event will occur, withholding this knowledge from the player. The player is then told when the accurate number of hours separates the character from the event.

For example: as DM, for the initial "frame of warning," I roll 6d4, learning that a battle is going to end in 14 hours. Then, 14 hours before the battle ends, I tell the character that the battle "will end in 6-24 hours;" the character doesn't know from this that 14 hours is the exact end.

To determine when to reveal the "event nearing" frame, I roll 2d4, getting a result of 2; two hours before the battle ends, I tell the character the outcome of the battle "will end in 2-8 hours." Then, 1 hour later, I tell the character the battle will end in one hour.

Notes

Unquestionably, not an easy sage ability to manage or run. The DM must use caution and good sense in knowing what information to reveal, and how much, to best produce a reasonable facsimile of the character having insight into mass events based on his or her knowledge of history. It's well to remember that most characters possessing this knowledge will be 8th level and higher, and that they've forsaken many other possible sage abilities in order to possess this one.

See History (sage study)