Cognitive History (sage ability)

The capacity to accurately predict the behavior of large masses of people, numbering in the tens of thousands, within the existing fabric of the general society. While the actions of one individual could not be foreseen, it is possible to predict events seizing masses of people before they unfold.

The cognitive historian, for example, would be able to make a reasonable guess at range of dates at which time a rebellion or a revolution might begin; when an army could set out and what purpose that army might seek to achieve; the dangers presented by apparently passive groups such as nations or huge racial groups; as well as sentiments within a whole people against or for ideals relating to education, political change, economic well-being or morality. Through the use of this knowledge, actions on the part of those in power could serve to influence or suspend such movements from taking place.

While the ability simply gives the character this knowledge, no special skills are gained which enable the character to convince others of the truth of such predictions. The character must gain respect for the character's knowledge through other means.

It is expected that the DM would reveal these mass movements to the character as though they had already taken place - though they won't until a month or more into the future. Thus the character is armed with legitimate knowledge, however the use to which this knowledge is applied.

Remember that the size of the group is the determining factor regarding the time before a prediction made manifests, in addition to the accuracy of that prediction; no prediction can be made of any number of persons less than 10,000:

• 10,000 persons would enable predictions up to a random 1-9 days into the future.
• 100,000 persons would enable a prediction with a spread of 1-7 days up to 2 weeks into the future.
• 1,000,000 persons would enable a prediction with a spread of 1-5 days up to 1 month into the future.
• 10,000,000 persons would enable a prediction with a spread of 1-3 days up to 2 months into the future.
• 100,000,000 persons would enable a prediction of the exact day up to 4 months into the future.

Thus, if a nation of 2 million persons were set to declare war on the 7th of April, 22 days from now, the character would know that the event would occur sometime between 5th of April and the 9th. Note that as the date approached, the character's knowledge of the exact day would NOT improve.

See History