Cognitive History (sage ability)

Cognitive History is an expert-status sage ability in the study of History, allowing characters to anticipate and react to large-scale historical and sociopolitical shifts before they happen, through comprehending the behaviour of large numbers of intelligent persons. The skill's strength lies in its focus on observable patterns, making it a form of educated foresight rather than supernatural divination.

This is particularly useful in political or intrigue-heavy campaigns, where long-term planning and strategic insight matter. However, even in more combat-oriented settings, forewarning of military actions or resource shortages could provide a distinct advantage. The limitation that players may not be able to prevent certain events, only respond to them, ensures the skill remains fair and engaging rather than an easy way to control the game's narrative.

The time frame for the foresight varies depending on the event in question. Some events may be foreseen within days or weeks, while others, such as wars or rebellions, may be predicted years in advance. The DM ultimately determines the specifics of each predicted event. The inclusion of an event in the campaign gives the players a distinct advantage, as they are not caught by surprise but have forewarning of the situation. However, knowing about an event does not always guarantee the players can prevent it, though they can use their knowledge to their advantage in numerous ways.

Prediction Table

Event	Frame of Warning	Event Nearing	Event Imminent
Rebellion	3-12 months	4-6 weeks	3-6 days
Declaration of War	7-12 months	2-3 weeks	1-3 days
Appearance of Invading Army	3-5 days	1 day	2-5 hours
Outcome of a Battle	6-24 hours	2-8 hours	1 hour
Sociological Disaster	5-30 months	1-4 months	2 days

Predictions

Explanations for the terms used on the table are discussed below. This applies only to situations where the players are not themselves directly involved.

• Frame of Warning. Indicates the initial time frame within which a major event will occur within a hundred miles of the character’s location. This is the earliest indication of an impending event, providing the character with a broad idea of when it will take place, but without specific details. For example, the Dungeon Master (DM) might inform the character, "Within the next three to twelve months, a rebellion will occur," signaling the general time window without delving into specifics.

• Event Nearing. Provides more clarity and refines the character’s understanding of the event. It updates the warning, not only by narrowing down the time frame but also by providing the character with more specific information about where the event will occur and its potential impact. For instance, when the character originally knew an invading army would appear in 3-5 days, they are now informed that the invasion will happen the next day, and they also learn the size of the army and the direction from which it is approaching.

• Event Imminent. Gives the final, most specific update on the event. The character is now informed with full clarity about the critical details, such as the leadership involved, the entities or factions directly participating in the event, and the scale of the conflict or disaster. At this stage, the character knows exactly what is happening and what the consequences will be, and they may have the opportunity to take decisive action in response to the imminent event.

In each case, the DM rolls to determine the exact time an event will occur, keeping this information hidden from the player. The player is then informed of the remaining time before the event happens. For example, in the case of the initial "frame of warning," the DM rolls 6d4 and learns that a battle will end in 14 hours. Then, 14 hours before the battle ends, the player is told the battle "will end in 6-24 hours," without revealing that 14 hours is the precise time.

To determine the "event nearing" frame, the DM rolls 2d4 and gets a result of 2. Two hours before the battle ends, the character is informed that the battle "will end in 2-8 hours." One hour later, the character is told the battle will end in one hour.

Notes

Unquestionably, not an easy sage ability to manage or run. The DM must use caution and good sense in knowing what information to reveal, and how much, to best produce a reasonable facsimile of the character having insight into mass events based on his or her knowledge of history. It's well to remember that most characters possessing this knowledge will be 8th level and higher, and that they've forsaken many other possible sage abilities in order to possess this one.

See History (sage study)